Counterfeits

Continuing my previous comments on collectibles, I'll mention a little about the upsurge in counterfeiting. (Incidentally, it is said that some 20-25% of US currency in worldwide circulation is counterfeit!) As the market value of various collectibles trends upward, the incentive to create copies also increases. Many of these are so well executed that it is virtually impossible for even experts to detect the forgeries. As just one example,there are probably thousands of Leica copies that were made in the USSR over many years, and some of them are near perfect while others are rather crude and easy to spot. There are now hundreds, if not thousands, of vintage Fender Stratocaster fakes out there and probably quite a few people have unknowingly spent incredible amounts of money on them. Here's a link to a page with a lot of good info on copies and counterfeits in the world of vintage guitars:
http://www.edroman.com/rants/vintage.htm
Some of the world's most prestigious museums and auction houses have been fooled by forgeries of paintings and sculptures time and again. Try searching online for counterfeit art, guitars, or cameras and you'll find lots of interesting stuff!

Observations on collectibles

Being involved in collectibles markets, I am of course interested in the fluctuations of values in those markets and the drivers behind them. Very generally speaking, that's 'supply and demand'. The interesting part is that one is not necessarily driven by the other, although that can more often be the case in financial markets. Another, perhaps even more interesting, part of this equation is that supply and demand, whether real or perceived, are often controlled and manipulated to influence price. The major price driver in collectibles markets is nearly always perceived value which may have little or no correlation with utilitarian or 'true' value. This is what leads to the totally bizarre price levels attained by certain pieces. "A fool and his money are soon parted." (There are a lot of people out there with more dollars than sense.) More to follow...

Saco River, Bartlett NH

This was taken on a recent October afternoon. The view looks downstream, to the East. 

Late September

 

Wonalancet

A late September afternoon 

Wonalancet NH

View North to Sandwich Range 

Sunrise over Huntress Swamp

December morning after snowstorm